torsdag 28 januari 2010

Climate Sensitivity and Feedback 4

Roy Spencer has a very interesting post on climate sensitivity: Evidence for Natural Climate Cycles in the IPCC Climate Models’ 20th Century Temperature Reconstructions:
  • This demonstrates one of the absurdities (Dick Lindzen’s term, as I recall) in the way current climate change theory works: For a given observed temperature change, the smaller the forcing that caused it, the greater the inferred sensitivity of the climate system.
  • But taken to its logical conclusion, this relationship between the strength of the forcing, and the inferred sensitivity of the climate system, leads to the absurd notion that an infinitesimally small forcing causes nearly infinite climate sensitivity(!) As I have mentioned before, this is analogous to an ancient tribe of people thinking their moral shortcomings were responsible for lightning, storms, and other whims of nature.
  • This absurdity is avoided if we simply admit that we do not know all of the natural forcings involved in climate change. And the greater the number of natural forcings involved, then the less we have to worry about human-caused global warming.
  • The IPCC, though, never points out this inherent source of bias in its reports. But the IPCC can not admit to scientific uncertainty…that would reduce the change of getting the energy policy changes they so desire.
Spencer shows the scientific/mathematical modeling absurdity of attributing temperature variations to one single factor (CO2 concentration) in the presence of natural variations not accounted for in the model. The more absurd, the more alarming. Or the other way around, the more alarming, the more absurd.

Even BBC and Nature is on this track: Temperature and CO2 feedback loop 'weaker than thought'.

As the snow storm rages outside, we see the Credibility Storm Brewing on Climate Change

And listen to Obamas State of the Union speech:
What we now are waiting for is feed-back on Climategate from the Royal Society and its little brother the Royal Swedish Academy, see Global Warming: The Collapse of a Grand Narrative!

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